By Shanuk Hewavithana
With the topic of world affairs, there’s only really one topic that comes into people’s minds, Russia and Ukraine.
The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has been an ongoing concern in international politics since the annexation of Crimea by Russia. However, a recent surge in violence has brought increased attention to what is quickly turning into another proxy war between NATO and Russia. The Ukrainian government estimates that over 9,000 people have been killed since Russian-backed rebels broke away from Ukraine and began their fight against Kyiv's military forces.
A ceasefire was signed on September 5th of 2014, but relations between the two parties deteriorated rapidly after a Malaysian Airlines jet was shot down in Eastern Ukraine on July 17th of 2015. This event has led many to question just how far Putin will go to protect his interests overseas and exposed the fragility of global security agreements like the Minsk Protocol Agreement.
Currently, there is little reason to believe that either side will accept the Minsk Protocol. After Russia's initial annexation of Crimea, the United States and European Union placed sanctions on Russia's economy in hopes of convincing Putin to abandon his plans for further expansion. More than a year later, these attempts have been largely fruitless, leading many to believe that sanctions are not a sustainable means of protecting Ukraine's sovereignty. In fact, it has been reported that Putin is far more interested in weakening the West through economic means than he is with expanding the Russian empire.
Many people fear that Putin will continue to destabilize Ukraine until Kyiv agrees to cede Crimea and Donbas back into Russian control.
Under the current situation, it is difficult to imagine any sort of peaceful resolution, especially because both parties clearly have a stake in the affairs of Eastern Ukraine, and neither will be willing to leave without admitting defeat.
For now, the West needs to continue supporting the Ukrainian government, but it must do so in a way that does not increase Russian aggression. In the past, the United States and other Western countries have supported questionable regimes in Egypt, Yemen, Libya and others. These policies have been largely fruitless as they caused more unrest than they actually helped resolve.
Likewise, as long as NATO continues to expand into Eastern Europe, it will be difficult for Putin to agree to any sort of compromise that would bring an end to the violence in Ukraine.
With that being said however, Putin is unfortunately unlikely to back down from his plans for expanding Russia's influence abroad, but as the situation continues to go down the ever-expanding rabbit hole it has found itself in, global events could shift Russia’s interests elsewhere, or maybe even bring an end to this war. For now, all that us, as bystanders of these events can do, is simply wish for the best and support those in need in any way, shape or form.
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